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Forecast

Today

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Issued: 31/10/2014 19:30:00

Pollution Band: Low

Details

During previous years Diwali and Guy Fawkes Night events, bonfires and fireworks have been associated with elevated levels of PM10 and PM25, with concentrations locally reaching the ‘very high’ threshold. This year, some events are expected on Saturday and Sunday nights, with some Guy Fawkes Night events also planned for the following weekend. Fresh to strong winds throughout Saturday and Sunday should ensure that elevated particulate concentrations, if present, close to bonfire and firework celebrations, are short lived.

The weather forecast for the weekend and Monday is dominated by a series of cold fronts expected to pass over the UK , tracking west to east on Saturday and Sunday. Rain, heavy at times, will likely accompany these fronts. Temperatures are due to decrease steadily from about 16 C on Saturday to 12 C on Monday. Fresh to strong, south westerly winds are expected over the three days.

Back trajectories show that air arriving on Saturday will have traveled over France and Spain before arriving in London via the north west of France. This may lead to elevated particulate concentrations at some sites on Saturday, although mostly levels are still expected to remain ‘Low’.

From later on Saturday through to Monday night, air arriving from the south west is expected to have spent 3 or 4 days over the Atlantic before arriving in London. As a result, air pollution is expected to remain ‘low’ throughout the forecast period for the following pollutants:

Nitrogen dioxide
PM10 particulate
PM2.5 particulate
Ozone
Sulphur dioxide




This forecast is intended to provide information on expected pollution levels in areas of significant public exposure. It may not apply in very specific locations close to unusually strong or short-lived local sources of pollution.

Outlook

Forecast icon

Issued: 31/10/2014 19:30:00

Start: Saturday 1 November

Finish: end of Monday 3 November

Pollution Band: Low

Details

During previous years Diwali and Guy Fawkes Night events, bonfires and fireworks have been associated with elevated levels of PM10 and PM25, with concentrations locally reaching the ‘very high’ threshold. This year, some events are expected on Saturday and Sunday nights, with some Guy Fawkes Night events also planned for the following weekend. Fresh to strong winds throughout Saturday and Sunday should ensure that elevated particulate concentrations, if present, close to bonfire and firework celebrations, are short lived.

The weather forecast for the weekend and Monday is dominated by a series of cold fronts expected to pass over the UK , tracking west to east on Saturday and Sunday. Rain, heavy at times, will likely accompany these fronts. Temperatures are due to decrease steadily from about 16 C on Saturday to 12 C on Monday. Fresh to strong, south westerly winds are expected over the three days.

Back trajectories show that air arriving on Saturday will have traveled over France and Spain before arriving in London via the north west of France. This may lead to elevated particulate concentrations at some sites on Saturday, although mostly levels are still expected to remain ‘Low’.

From later on Saturday through to Monday night, air arriving from the south west is expected to have spent 3 or 4 days over the Atlantic before arriving in London. As a result, air pollution is expected to remain ‘low’ throughout the forecast period for the following pollutants:

Nitrogen dioxide
PM10 particulate
PM2.5 particulate
Ozone
Sulphur dioxide




This forecast is intended to provide information on expected pollution levels in areas of significant public exposure. It may not apply in very specific locations close to unusually strong or short-lived local sources of pollution.


How to use the Daily Air Quality Index *

  • Step 1: Determine whether you (or your children) are likely to be at-risk from air pollution. Your doctor may also be able to give you advice.
  • Step 2: If you may be at-risk, and are planning strenuous activity outdoors, check the air pollution forecast.
  • Step 3: Use the health messages corresponding to the highest forecast level of pollution as a guide.
Air Pollution Banding Value Accompanying health messages for at-risk groups and
the general population
At-risk individuals ** General population
Low 1-3 Enjoy your usual outdoor activities.

Enjoy your usual outdoor activities.

Moderate 4-6 Adults and children with lung problems, and adults with heart problems, who experience symptoms, should consider reducing strenuous physical activity, particularly outdoors. Enjoy your usual outdoor activities.
High 7-9 Adults and children with lung problems, and adults with heart problems, should reduce strenuous physical exertion, particularly outdoors, and particularly if they experience symptoms. People with asthma may find they need to use their reliever inhaler more often. Older people should also reduce physical exertion. Anyone experiencing discomfort such as sore eyes, cough or sore throat should consider reducing activity, particularly outdoors.
Very High 10 Adults and children with lung problems, adults with heart problems, and older people, should avoid strenuous physical activity. People with asthma may find they need to use their reliever inhaler more often. Reduce physical exertion, particularly outdoors, especially if you experience symptoms such as cough or sore throat.

* Daily Air Quality Index information sourced from UK-AIR (Air Information Resource) website.

* Adults and children with heart or lung problems are at greater risk of symptoms. Follow your doctor's usual advice about exercising and managing your condition. It is possible that very sensitive individuals may experience health effects even on Low air pollution days.