During previous years Guy Fawkes Night events, bonfires and fireworks have been associated with elevated levels of PM10 with concentrations locally reaching the ‘very high’ pollution threshold. The prediction of PM10 arising from Guy Fawkes Night events is especially difficult as it includes not only consideration of atmospheric dispersion but also social activities that effect the emissions.

Looking at the PM10 concentrations arising from Guy Fawkes Night events over the last 10 years it is evident that many events are displaced from the 5th November to the preceding and following weekend. However, this year all Guy Fawkes Night events are likely to take place next weekend; Friday 3rd November to Sunday 5th.

Concentrations measured are very dependant on the proximity of a monitoring site to local Guy Fawkes Night events. The spatial distribution of events leads to greatest concentrations of PM10 particulate being measured in the suburbs where concentrations rise rapidly at dusk. PM10 particulate concentrations in town centres are often lower than the suburbs and do not begin to rise until later in the evening.

Weather forecasts are currently showing indications of settled clear conditions for part of the weekend and therefore the possibility of locally ‘moderate’, ‘high’ or ‘very high’ PM10.

Item date 02/11/2006