During previous years Guy Fawkes Night events, bonfires and fireworks have caused elevated levels of PM10 with concentrations reaching the ‘very high’ pollution threshold in some areas. The prediction of PM10 arising from Guy Fawkes Night events is especially difficult as it includes consideration of both atmospheric dispersion and social factors that affect the timing of bonfire and fireworks.

Moderate PM10 has also been linked with Diwali fireworks in recent years, especially in west London. This year Diwali and Hindu New Year will be taking place at the same time as Guy Fawkes events.

This year the vast majority of organised fireworks displays are split between tonight and Saturday. Tonight, wet weather is likely to prevent widespread PM10 problems but ‘very high’ air pollution may occur very close to bonfire and fireworks events. Wet weather tonight may lead to the postponement of some private fireworks events to Saturday and Sunday.

Low wind speeds are forecast for Saturday night and in addition to ‘very high’ air pollution close to bonfire and fireworks events, widespread ‘moderate’ PM10 particulate is likely which may persist into Sunday.

Further private Guy Fawkes events may lead to elevated or ‘moderate’ PM10 on Sunday evening but swift clearance is expected as wet and windy weather moves in from the west.

Item date 05/11/2010